NBA best bets: Clippers vs. Heat picks, prediction for Sunday, Feb. 4

Clippers vs. Heat Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Feb. 4

Sunday, Feb. 4, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Clippers Betting Outlook

The Clippers have put themselves squarely in the championship conversation after the addition of James Harden. Since their initial five-game slip when Harden first joined the team, the Clippers have had the best offense in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats.

Part of that offensive success has come by unlocking the pick-and-roll game between Harden and Zubac. And if Zubac plays, the Heat will have their hands full containing the Clippers two-man game on offense. However, Heat center Bam Adebayo is arguably the best pick-and-roll defender in the league, which should leave more opportunity for some of the Clipper role players to step up and contribute.

Terrance Mann in particular is someone who could see his role increased against Miami if Zubac plays. His usage increases by 2.66% when the Croatian big man plays for Los Angeles, and his points prop at 6.5 is a touch low considering he’s cleared that number in six of his last 10 games and seven of the last nine with Zubac playing.

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Heat Betting Outlook

The Heat had themselves a rough January, but finally find themselves on the other end of a seven-game losing streak after consecutive wins (and covers) against the Kings and Wizards.

During the streak — and to some degree after — rumors swirled about the possibility of Jimmy Butler being traded (a ridiculous notion), but Butler seems supremely aware of the rumors, posting ridiculous numbers lately. In the past two games, Butler is averaging 27.5 points, eight rebounds and 4.5 assists on 70.8% shooting from the field.

Adebayo has also stepped up in these games, averaging 18 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists on 57.1% shooting. I think they’ve unlocked a sense of urgency — at least for the time being.

One thing to note is that even with their losing streak, the Heat still rank second in Win Differential, per Cleaning the Glass — a metric that measures a team’s over- or under-performance based on Efficiency Differential. In this case, the Heat have over-performed their expected win total by 4.1 games despite the rough patch.

Clippers vs. Heat prediction and pick

While the Heat have over-performed their underlying metrics, I think they’re on the right side in this matchup. Sunday will be the Clippers' sixth road game in a row and they will have traveled from Detroit to Miami — not a short trip. Butler missed the first matchup and the Clippers won a blowout in Los Angeles, but since this is the only other time these teams play this season, I think Miami will come out motivated. Since the 2021-22 season, when the Heat are underdogs coming off a head-to-head ATS loss, they’re 19-12 ATS (17% ROI) and 3-2 this season.

However, the Clippers have played great lately and the Heat haven’t, so I’m not rushing out to bet Miami right away since the line has already moved towards L.A. But if this gets to +4.5 on the Miami side, this is a full-unit play for me. I may still bet them as I like +3.5, but I’ll wait and try to get the best of the number and some free-throw insurance in case it’s a close game down the stretch.

In the meantime, there are a few player props I like. I mentioned Adebayo’s recent success, and while he’s not the best rebounder, I think he could be in line for a big rebounding night if Zubac returns. He’s averaging 12.1 boards in his last eight games against Zubac since the Bubble season, and he’s cleared 11 or more in all but one of those matchups. I already bet over 10.5 for 0.6 units.

I also like Terrance Mann over 6.5 points if Zubac plays. He gets a usage bump with Zubac in, plus the Heat are one of the worst teams at preventing corner 3s and Mann ranks in the 76th percentile for 3-point rate (26%). Wait on Zubac’s official status before playing and follow in the Action app to see how I play Miami.

Pick: Bam Adebayo over 10.5 rebounds | Terrance Mann over 6.5 points (if Zubac Plays) | Heat +3 or better